Howard Marks

The Calculus of Value

year was the 25th anniversary of my memo bubble.com, the one that put my writing on the map, and I marked the occasion by publishing another memo, called On Bubble Watch. While the title may have raised concern for readers, my main conclusion was that…

On Bubble Watch

1970s is that “being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong.” In this case, however, I wasn’t too far ahead. This milestone anniversary gives me an occasion to write again about bubbles, a subject that’s very much of interest today. Some…

Nobody Knows Yet Again

financial institutions might fall like dominoes due to the combination of (a) financial deregulation, (b) a manic housing boom, (c) unwise mortgage lending, (d) the structuring of mortgages into thousands of tranched securities that were rated too high, (e) investment in these securities on the…

More on Repealing the Laws of Economics

allocate resources (such as their labor) to the activities for which they will be best rewarded. These and the rest of the rules are straightforward, and it doesn’t take a Ph.D. to understand them. In fact, they’re part of human nature. But governments sometimes want…

Is it a Bubble

Ours is a remarkable moment in world history: a transformative technology is ascending, and its supporters say it will change everything. Does the AI investment boom constitute a bubble? Howard Marks applies his classic framework to evaluate the current market environment.

Gimme Credit

there’s been increased interest in credit, and that’s why I’m devoting this memo to it. It’ll come a little closer than usual to “talking my book,” but I think the subject justifies that. Most of my references will be to high yield bonds, where I…

Cockroaches in the Coal Mine

are probably more. . . everyone should be forewarned on this one.” And we all know that coal miners used to bring along a canary when they entered a mine, since its tiny body would succumb to any gas that was present before the…

A Look Under the Hood

state pension fund. I was asked to listen in and provide feedback on the results of a board-member survey their consultant had recently conducted and would be reporting on during the meeting. The content of the consultant’s session impressed me so much that I decided…

The Indispensability of Risk

me entitled “Chess Teaches the Power of Sacrifice” by Maurice Ashley, a chess grandmaster who has been inducted into the U.S. Chess Hall of Fame. Few people know that Bruce is a chess player, and I hadn’t thought about this fact for years, but the…

The Impact of Debt

P di. g investment philosophy – is the blog from the Collaborative Fund to which Morgan House L l,. a fund partner, is a regular contributor. As I read Housel’s musings, I often find myself sayin T g,, “that’s right in line…

The Folly of Certainty

The impetus for this memo came from an article about the dangers of overconfidence in complex systems. Howard Marks explores why certainty is almost always misplaced in investing — and why admitting uncertainty is a source of intellectual and financial strength, not weakness.

Shall We Repeal the Laws of Economics

reality. Trump’s call for tariffs and Harris’s attack on grocery profiteering are merely L tw.o examples of proposals that would impose costs the candidate ignores (in Trump’s case) or that fai T, to reflect a meaningful understanding of the problem (in Harris’s case).

Ruminating on Asset Allocation

subject, but rather a new way to combine old ideas into a unified theory. P. Before I proceed, I want to mention that, from time to time in this memo, I’ll L sa.y “generally,” “usually,” or “everything else being equal.” These caveats are likely applicable…

Mr Market Miscalculates

additional interest on that basis. Sometimes his idea of value appears plausible and. justified by business developments and prospects as you know them. OPften, on the other. hand, Mr. Market lets his enthusiasm or his fears run away with himL, and the value…

Easy Money

excesses starting with the South Sea Bubble of the early 1700s. The book’s description of behavior surrounding the P a. nia for the South Sea Company jibed with what I was seeing in the tech/media/telecom bubble that L w.as underway. I received excellent…

Taking the Temperature

In preparation for his interview for 'Lunch with the FT,' Howard Marks reflected on the current state of markets and the broader investment environment, offering his characteristic measured assessment of risk, opportunity, and investor psychology in 2023.

Lessons From Svb

P g. investors and lenders, leading to further credit tightening and additional pain across a range of indusLtr.ies and sectors. T, N E One-off or a Harbinger of Things to Come? M E G A number of things about SVB made it somewhat of a…

Further Thoughts on Sea Change

11, 1987, I first came across the saying “this time it’s different.” According to an article in E The New York Times by Anise C. Wallace, Sir John Templeton had Mwarned that when investors say times are different, it’s usually in an effort to rationalize…

Fewer Losers More Winner

fund for the 14 years overall? Fourth percentile! I was wowed. It turns out that most investors aiming for top-decile performance even P tu.a lly shoot themselves in the foot, but Dave never did. L. T, Around the same time, a prominent value investing firm…

What Really Matters

year or two. And in I Beg to Differ N(July 2022), I discussed the questions I was asked most frequently at Oaktree’s June 21 conferenceE in London: How bad will inflation M get? How much will the Fed raise interest rates to fight it? Will…

The Pendulum in Intl Affairs

underpriced assets. P. On Regulation, written in March 2011, discussed the outlook for ruleLm.aking stemming from the Global Financial Crisis. I said future developments were likely to T b,e driven by the long-term pendulum-like swing in attitudes on that subject. Over time, thoNse attitudes…

Selling Out

me that even though selling is an inescapable part of the investment process, I’ve never devoted an entire memo P o. i t. L. T, The Basic Idea N E M Everyone is familiar with the old saw that’s supposed to capture investing’s…

Sea Change

investmeNnt management industry in 1969, many banks – like the one I worked for at the time – focused their equEity portfolios on the so-called M “Nifty Fifty.” The Nifty Fifty comprised the stocks of companies that were considered the best and E fastest-growing –…

Panmure House

then used software to create a transcript of the taped interview. I’ve editPed. it only to make my L. remarks more intelligible and less painful to read (without changing their message); any serious additions are shown in brackets. T, N E M While little…

Illusion of Knowledge

difficult. So here it is. P. L. Food for Thought T, N E There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, aMnd those who don’t know they don’t know. E G A – John KenNneth Galbraith A M Shortly after putting the finishing…

I Beg to Differ

at the time was “you can’t be fired for buying IBM,” the era’s quintessential growth company. P. L. T, I’ve also written extensively about the fate of these stocks. In 1973-74, the OPEC oil embargo and the N resultant recession took the S&P 500 Index…

Bull Market Rhymes

essentially the same thing in an essay titled “The Unreachables.” It took him a few more words, but I think his formulation is the best: P. L. There are recurring cycles, ups and downs, but the course of events is essentially the same, with small…