Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust — Annual Report 2009

Managers' Review — Baillie Gifford (year ended 31 March 2009)

Context. The crisis year — and the trust's centenary (1909–2009). Net asset value per share and the share price both fell 41% while the FTSE All World Index fell 23% in sterling terms, the fall exacerbated by gearing. The review restates the three strategic investment contentions of the previous five years — the rise of China, the market's underestimation of technological innovation, and the dangerous flaws of Western financial systems — and argues that each survived the crisis, before covering China, Russia, Brazil and India, the technology holdings, and the aftermath of the Western financial debacle.

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Managers' Review

We have had three strategic investment contentions over the last five years. They have been that:

• the rise of China (and to a lesser extent other emerging economies) will transform the global economic scene;
• stockmarkets underestimate the power of technological innovation in exaggerated revulsion to the bubble of 1998–2000; and
• the Western financial systems are dangerously flawed.

We sincerely believe that each of these three hypotheses have survived the extraordinary conditions of the last 12 months. Indeed we would argue that their explanatory power has only grown during this time of crisis. It has therefore thoroughly disturbed us that our shareholders have suffered so badly over the reporting period. We continue, however, to measure ourselves over rolling five year timeframes as an absolute minimum as we deeply believe that anything less is far more likely to encapsulate luck rather than skill. Even more dangerously, yearly assessment tends to endorse the pursuit of momentum in share prices rather than rewarding the gradual underlying value built by outstanding companies exploiting persistent opportunities. Therefore whilst we are sorry that the last year has been so tough (and damaging to our longer term record) we will only abandon our contentions and our stocks when their long-run prospects have deteriorated rather than when the dreadful mood of the market has hurt their immediate valuation. Unless the important facts change nor will our portfolio. We aim to be investors not speculators.

China

Twelve months ago China was suffering from a phase of economic overheating. Agricultural inflation, wage increases and property exuberance all needed to be dampened down. Government policy was aimed at accomplishing this. It succeeded. China was therefore enjoying a classic, traditional economic cycle of its own before the onset of the world financial crisis. Arguably we should have been paying even more attention to developments in China as the domestic stockmarket, for all its faults, indicated that first inflation and then the industrial and real estate slowdown were serious issues.

Since the global financial crisis of last autumn China's structural strengths have, however, been seen in full relief. The contrast with the travails of the West as well as with less well-positioned developing nations is startling. China's dramatic monetary stimulus is already feeding through to renewed bank lending whilst the room for fiscal expansion has been exploited but far from exhausted. This appears to be translating into an early and dramatic recovery of the economy despite the much feared export decline. At present we would expect China to account for up to 150% of total world growth in 2009.

Whilst this response has been formidable both in scale and apparent success it is every bit as important for us to contemplate the long term implications of China's evolution. We do not wish to imply either that there are not severe challenges or that the Chinese Communist Party has discovered the eternal secrets of economic management. In the next year the banking system needs to ensure that the monetary stimulus is channelled into productive investment rather than speculation. Beyond this timeframe the need to shift the balance of the economy from exports to the internal market, from East to West, from the cities of the coast to the rural interior are major challenges. We would not despair that they can be accomplished. China has already delivered the world's largest car market over 20 years of progress and the world's largest internet user base over a decade. Sensible reforms to healthcare too seem more easily achieved than in America.

The challenge for us is to reflect the changing nature of the Chinese economy in our portfolio. The shift towards domestic consumption and away from exports and even a moderation in the use of commodities mean that exposure more often needs to be sought in Greater China's own companies rather more than has been our historic policy. With the considerable assistance of my Chinese colleague Wanyi Yao we are gradually embarking on this evolution as opportunities permit. Our holdings in Tencent, China Merchants Bank, and Baidu.com as well as in China Mobile should be seen in this light. With the burgeoning rapprochement between China and Taiwan, TSMC might appropriately be included in this list.

Russia, Brazil and India

In the other key emerging markets for world growth the response to crisis has been less overwhelmingly successful. The most obvious casualty has been Russia. This has hurt our portfolio. The exaggerated appetite for debt finance displayed by many oligarchs and the large capital needs of the resource industry have been shown up. We do not think that these developments are insurmountable but they do moderate our prior enthusiasm. We have sold Norilsk Nickel where oligarch debt has opened the door to increased state machinations and cut back our position in Gazprom as current energy prices make the enormous investment programme problematic. We have no plans to make any further reductions.

We feel no such need for apology in the case of our substantial Brazilian holdings. The economy is enduring some current weakness but shows no signs of losing its fundamental balance. We are happy both to loan money to the Brazilian government (via our long term inflation protected bond holding) and to back the investment needs of Petrobras. Their remarkable oil discoveries in offshore Brazil seem to us to be much more significant than the wild oscillations of the spot oil price. The rewards for these projects are years ahead whilst the cost equation is improving as few apart from Petrobras are in a position to invest in such assets. To put it another way our enthusiasm for Petrobras is based on its own long term prospects not on a speculation about the course of monthly oil prices.

India shows encouraging signs of suffering less from the financial crisis than it did from the inflationary pressures and overheating of early last year. Our problem remains identifying attractive companies at reasonable prices. We admire the manner in which both Hero Honda (motorbikes) and HDFC (mortgage finance) are navigating their sectoral challenges.

Technology

Possibly the most puzzling experience of last year was the abject share price performance of our technology stocks in the autumn. This puzzles us because we can think of few companies that are in a better position to ride out the crisis. The industry in general, and the companies that we own in particular, tend to have extremely strong cash positions and are well used to deflationary trading conditions. Just as we were disturbed by their sharp declines so we are now pleased that there is every indication that the strengths of these businesses are being acknowledged. Indeed from Amazon to Google to Apple there are clear indications that both innovation and structural changes tend to be magnified in tough times and that these companies are actually thriving rather than merely surviving. Whilst the virtues of these three companies are gradually and variably being recognised by the markets there are still other stocks in related areas that we are increasingly enthused by as they remain out of investment favour. The principal example of this is Nintendo, which continues to churn out high returns and generate impressive cash flow by thinking differently about the gaming industry. We are delighted to continue to add to our holding as the market worries about exchange rates and monthly sales figures. Sadly we can find nothing else of similar attractions in the wastelands of the Japanese corporate sector.

We maintain our belief in investing in leading alternative energy businesses. We can understand their weak showings over the last year as (unlike the companies above) they do need access to bank and project finance. Yet we do not think that their prospects and value has been destroyed by challenging but temporary circumstances. Indeed those with relatively strong financial and competitive advantages may well emerge from this downturn in even stronger positions than we had estimated. We certainly judge that this is the case for Vestas (wind) and First Solar (thin film) whilst we hope, with less confidence, that this remains so for its fellow solar company Q-Cells. It seems to us that the two most important governments in the world are increasingly committed to alternative energy development. This is imminently important in both America and China although we will need to observe the competitive implications of Chinese investment in this area very carefully.

The Aftermath of the Western Financial Debacle

We had long been concerned by the complexities, gearing and greed inculcated by far too much of the Western financial sector. Our direct exposure has been low. It would have been better if it had been non-existent. This, however, was less critical to our fortunes than the complete freezing of the financial system after the Lehman collapse. We confess to surprise that the deplorable conduct of the banking industry translated into an inability to provide even the most basic financial services to the real economy in a manner not seen at least since the 1930's and arguably not for several centuries. This situation was untenable for long and is being gradually corrected but even the temporary stoppage of credit has severely damaged the global economy.

Where does this sad series of events leave our attitude to the financial sector? We would like to say that bank managements are demonstrating a return to their dull reputations of yore and to less exotic reward structures but we see little evidence that this is true. From Barclays to Goldman Sachs there is no evidence of less complexity or reduced avarice. At the same time the re-financing of banking systems by state injection appears to us to be less than satisfactory. Creaking organisations such as Citi are being kept alive in an echo of Japanese 'zombie' banks whilst politics in Britain or America prevents full state control in the manner that served Sweden so well after its banking crisis. These drawbacks seem likely to lessen the available benefits for those financial institutions that have been both more prudently run and that have the interests of shareholders rather than insiders at their heart. Some benefits will, however, remain in the shape of higher spreads on new business and the balance sheet strength to expand organically and by acquisition.

It is in this spirit that we own Berkshire Hathaway where the shrinking of insurance capacity can be exploited by Mr Buffett and Banco Santander where Snr. Botin can reap the advantages of his prior prudence as demonstrated in his part of the fateful ABN Amro deal.

Conclusion and Outlook

Over time we think that the crisis of 2008-9 will come to be seen as a defining event in the decline of the West and the rise of China. Whether this proves an absolute decline of the West or merely a relative one depends heavily on far-sighted political leadership as the financial and demographic challenges rise. We are more encouraged by progress in America than Britain on this score. The rise of China is unlikely to be smooth but it is also likely to encompass areas as yet little changed from defence relations to the global monetary system. We suspect too that it will become evident even to the most determined mathematical risk modellers that danger lies more in the West than in the emerging giants.

In the coming year we suspect that there will be many surprises. These are just as likely to be positive as negative despite the experiences of the last year. It appears to us that the scale of monetary and fiscal easing globally combined with the easing of the credit squeeze, a vicious inventory cycle and the sharp collapse of a commodity boom are now exerting very expansionary forces on the global economy. It is not inconceivable that animal spirits revive. It is conceivable that inflation rather than deflation is in eventual prospect. We will endeavour to plot our way around these challenges whilst remembering just how unpredictable markets can be in the short-run. Last year saw falls of historic proportions bringing decade long capital returns on equities into negative territory. This is unusual and suggests a prolonged deep recession and savage corporate earnings falls are already discounted by markets. Such an atmosphere could easily prove a splendid time to invest and a questionable one at which to become pessimistic.

We maintain our belief in both our investment process and the economic viewpoints that have guided us over the last five years. The value of our companies lies not in the earnings of the next quarter or year but in their ability to deliver cash flows for their shareholders over decades. We will always make mistakes but we genuinely believe that more of our companies are in a stronger rather than a weaker position than a year ago. In the bulk of these cases it is because they can participate in the rising wealth of the emerging economies, that their competitive positions have been strengthened by the collapse of flawed financial models, or that their prospects are built on exceptional innovation. For all the difficulties of the last year we do not think that this is a framework for a global portfolio which we should be at all ashamed of now or in the future.