Core Concepts

The philosophical core of the PTJ method: always think about losing money before making money. Capital preservation is the default state; offense is the exception, deployed only when asymmetry, trend, and conviction align. Survival is the strategy — returns are its by-product.

PTJ's signature forecasting method: overlay the current market's price path onto the closest historical analogue and trade the rhyme. The 1987/1929 overlay — built with Peter Borish — anticipated the crash and remains the canonical demonstration that market psychology repeats at the level of pattern.

PTJ's inflation-regime allocation heuristic: when monetary debasement is the regime, own the fastest horse in the race — the asset that best compounds purchasing power — rather than debating which asset 'should' win. In 2020 he named bitcoin that horse, legitimizing it as an institutional macro asset.

PTJ's thesis that capitalism must be mended, not replaced: markets should price corporate behavior toward workers, communities, and the environment alongside shareholder returns. Through JUST Capital he works to make 'just' behavior measurable, rankable, and investable — harnessing markets to fix what markets distorted.

PTJ's cardinal rule against adding to losing positions: averaging down on a declining position is driven by ego and denial, not strategy — it compounds the original error of being wrong. Only losers average losers; winners cut, reassess, and re-enter on their own terms.

PTJ's entry filter: he only takes trades where the potential reward is at least five times the capital at risk. The asymmetry means he can be wrong four times out of five and still break even — the hit rate stops mattering and the payoff distribution does all the work.

PTJ's trend discipline: nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average. Positions are held with the prevailing trend and cut when price breaks the 200-day — a mechanical rule that removes ego from exit decisions and keeps the portfolio aligned with the market's actual verdict.

The Robin Hood model PTJ pioneered: apply hedge fund discipline to charity — fund programs like positions, measure outcomes like returns, cut what doesn't work, and scale what does. Philanthropy as portfolio management, with poverty-fighting programs held to the same accountability as trades.